Deploying military forces serves as a potent political signal, particularly when it involves the movement of nuclear weapons or launch platforms close to a potential adversary. This was exemplified in July 2024, when nuclear-capable Chinese bombers participated in joint patrols with Russian aircraft near Alaska. These maneuvers, along with similar flights into the Pacific, led Western analysts to speculate about the underlying messages China was trying to convey.
Some observers interpreted these flights as Beijing’s signal of dissatisfaction with the United States regarding Taiwan and a warning to NATO against involvement in Asia. The flights could also have been a demonstration of China’s advances in military capabilities, indicating that nuclear bombers are now a vital part of China’s strategic triad, which includes Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and ballistic missile submarines.
A report by Derek Solen from the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute suggested that the main significance of these operations lies in China’s ongoing effort to complete its nuclear triad. Furthermore, these flights might have been aimed at discouraging U.S. nuclear sharing with non-nuclear allies, particularly Japan and South Korea. Solen argued that China is concerned that collaborations between NATO and Asian allies could eventually form a powerful global anti-China coalition.
Tracking these intentions can be complex, as there have only been nine Sino-Russian flights since their inaugural joint mission in 2019. Prior to July 2024, these flights were predominantly observed in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea. The July incidents marked a significant escalation as they involved Chinese and Russian bombers nearing U.S. airspace, prompting interception by U.S. and Canadian fighters.
This marked the first occurrence of Chinese bombers departing from a foreign nation for a patrol mission and represented a direct approach to U.S. territory. Subsequent flights included newer, more advanced H-6N bombers capable of delivering nuclear payloads, demonstrated by the strategic approach towards Guam in late November 2024.
Solen, initially believing the flights served as a political message of solidarity between China and Russia, noted discrepancies in motivations, particularly in timing. The flights followed a NATO summit that criticized China for its support of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The involvement of advanced aircraft during these missions also raised questions about the primary objectives, as they likely served both military training and political signaling purposes.
While the motivations behind China’s actions remain ambiguous, analysts speculate about the likelihood of future flights into U.S. airspace. The Chinese government has called for the cessation of nuclear sharing and the withdrawal of nuclear arms from Europe, reflecting their apprehensions about expanded U.S. military engagements.
For the time being, there appears to be a strategic restraint on China’s part, especially considering international negotiations and the need to avoid tensions with the U.S. Solen pointed out that the absence of joint flights in recent months probably indicates a deliberate political decision, as both nations attempt to navigate their relationships with Washington.
Looking ahead, regular Chinese flights near U.S. territories seem unlikely. However, there is a potential for continued long-range bomber flight practices that could serve operational purposes unrelated to nuclear missions. The future of these combined flights will likely depend on the progress of negotiations or the geopolitical environment in the coming years.
